{"id":19021,"date":"2025-03-20T13:01:17","date_gmt":"2025-03-20T12:01:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/?post_type=events&#038;p=19021"},"modified":"2025-03-20T13:01:18","modified_gmt":"2025-03-20T12:01:18","slug":"df-lunch-seminar-with-cameron-lapoint-yale-school-of-management","status":"publish","type":"events","link":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/events\/df-lunch-seminar-with-cameron-lapoint-yale-school-of-management\/","title":{"rendered":"DF Lunch Seminar with Cameron LaPoint (Yale School of Management)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"py-0 wp-block-unilux-blocks-free-section section\"><div class=\"container xl:max-w-screen-xl\">\n<ul class=\"wp-block-unilux-blocks-custom-buttons btn-list\"><li class=\"wp-block-unilux-blocks-custom-button\"    aria-disabled=\"false\"\n    >\n    <a\n        role=\"link\"\n        aria-disabled=\"false\"\n                    href=\"https:\/\/www.eventbrite.fr\/e\/df-lunch-seminar-w-cameron-lapoint-yale-school-of-management-registration-1295590127949?aff=oddtdtcreator\"\n                target=\"_blank\"\n        class=\"btn btn--primary\"\n            >Register<\/a>\n<\/li>\n\n\n<li class=\"wp-block-unilux-blocks-custom-button\"    aria-disabled=\"false\"\n    >\n    <a\n        role=\"link\"\n        aria-disabled=\"false\"\n                    href=\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/events\/df-lunch-seminar-with-prof-ciaran-rogers-hec\/calendar\"\n                target=\"_self\"\n        class=\"btn btn--secondary\"\n            >Add to calendar<\/a>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-unilux-blocks-spacer is-spacer-size-sm\"><\/div>\n\n\n<h4 class=\"has-text-align-left wp-block-unilux-blocks-heading\"        id=\"housing-is-the-financial-cycle-evidence-from-100-years-of-local-building-permits\"\n    >\n<strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>\u201cHousing Is the Financial Cycle: Evidence from 100 Years of Local Building Permits\u201d<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>With the Lunch Seminar series, the Department of Finance is bringing eminent and up-and-coming researchers from around the world to Luxembourg.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-unilux-blocks-spacer is-spacer-size-sm\"><\/div>\n\n\n<h5 class=\"has-text-align-left wp-block-unilux-blocks-heading\"        id=\"abstract\"\n    >\nAbstract<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>Does the housing market lead the financial cycle, and if so, why?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We address these questions by creating a new hand-collected database spanning a century of monthly building permit quantities and valuations for all U.S. states and the 60 largest MSAs. We show that the option to build embedded in permits renders volatility in residential building permit growth (BPG) a strong predictor of aggregate and cross-sectional stock and corporate bond return volatility. This predictability remains even after conditioning on a battery of factors, including corporate and household leverage and firms\u2019 exposure through their network of plants to other localized physical risks like natural disasters. Cities and states with more elastic housing supply consistently predict financial market downturns at 12-month horizons, resulting in new trading strategies to hedge against overbuilding risk. A noisy rational expectations framework in which local building permits serve as a quasi-public signal for dividends explains these empirical patterns.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-unilux-blocks-spacer is-spacer-size-sm\"><\/div>\n\n\n<h5 class=\"has-text-align-left wp-block-unilux-blocks-heading\"        id=\"about-the-speaker\"\n    >\n糖心Vlog the speaker<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/som.yale.edu\/faculty-research\/faculty-directory\/cameron-lapoint\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Cameron LaPoint<\/a> is an Assistant Professor of Finance at Yale School of Management.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-unilux-blocks-spacer is-spacer-size-sm\"><\/div>\n\n\n<h5 class=\"has-text-align-left wp-block-unilux-blocks-heading\"        id=\"language\"\n    >\nLanguage<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>English.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is a free event. Registration is mandatory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Cold lunches are provided to registered participants only.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":85,"featured_media":19022,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"featured_image_focal_point":{"x":0,"y":0.32},"show_featured_caption":false,"ulux_newsletter_groups":"","uluxPostTitle":"","uluxPrePostTitle":"","_trash_the_other_posts":false,"_price":"","_stock":"","_tribe_ticket_header":"","_tribe_default_ticket_provider":"","_tribe_ticket_capacity":"0","_ticket_start_date":"","_ticket_end_date":"","_tribe_ticket_show_description":"","_tribe_ticket_show_not_going":false,"_tribe_ticket_use_global_stock":"","_tribe_ticket_global_stock_level":"","_global_stock_mode":"","_global_stock_cap":"","_tribe_rsvp_for_event":"","_tribe_ticket_going_count":"","_tribe_ticket_not_going_count":"","_tribe_tickets_list":"[]","_tribe_ticket_has_attendee_info_fields":false,"event_start_date":"2025-06-03 12:30:00","event_end_date":"2025-06-03 13:45:00","event_speaker_name":"Cameron LaPoint","event_speaker_link":"","event_is_online":false,"event_location":"Weicker Building","event_street":"4, rue Alphonse Weicker","event_location_link":"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/en\/about\/campuses\/weicker-building\/","event_zip_code":"2721","event_city":"Luxembourg","event_country":"Luxembourg"},"events-topic":[301],"events-type":[323,322,315],"organisation":[116,101],"authorship":[85],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v22.3 (Yoast SEO v22.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Predicting Unobserved Individual-level Causal Effects - FDEF I Uni.lu<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"With the Lunch Seminar series, the Department of Finance is bringing eminent and up-and-coming researchers from around the world to Luxembourg. Does the\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/events\/df-lunch-seminar-with-cameron-lapoint-yale-school-of-management\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"DF Lunch Seminar with Cameron LaPoint (Yale School of Management)\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"With the Lunch Seminar series, the Department of Finance is bringing eminent and up-and-coming researchers from around the world to Luxembourg. Does the\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/events\/df-lunch-seminar-with-cameron-lapoint-yale-school-of-management\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"FDEF EN\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/uni.FDEF.lu\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-03-20T12:01:18+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/03\/AdobeStock_1027885478-scaled.jpeg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2560\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1454\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Estimated reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/events\/df-lunch-seminar-with-cameron-lapoint-yale-school-of-management\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/events\/df-lunch-seminar-with-cameron-lapoint-yale-school-of-management\/\",\"name\":\"Predicting Unobserved Individual-level Causal Effects - FDEF I Uni.lu\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/events\/df-lunch-seminar-with-cameron-lapoint-yale-school-of-management\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/fdef-en\/events\/df-lunch-seminar-with-cameron-lapoint-yale-school-of-management\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.uni.lu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/03\/AdobeStock_1027885478-scaled.jpeg\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-03-20T12:01:17+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-03-20T12:01:18+00:00\",\"description\":\"With the Lunch Seminar series, the Department of Finance is bringing eminent and up-and-coming researchers from around the world to Luxembourg. 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